Executive Summary
We examine the evolution of consumer sentiment across the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia during the first quarters of 2024 and 2025. Using Sila Insights’ proprietary Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) methodology, we analyze monthly consolidated sentiment scores alongside specific business, economy, and employment indices to identify emerging trends and market opportunities.
The analysis reveals notable shifts in consumer confidence across both markets. Saudi Arabia demonstrates promising YoY growth in overall sentiment, with strong performance in employment indicators. While the UAE maintains its position as a regional leader in consumer optimism, despite some fluctuation in specific metrics. These insights offer valuable perspective for businesses seeking to navigate the dynamic economic landscape of the Gulf region.
Introduction
Consumer sentiment serves as a vital indicator of economic health, influencing spending patterns and business decision-making. In the GCC region, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia represent two of the most significant economies, each with distinct development trajectories and economic diversification strategies. Understanding how consumer confidence has evolved in these markets provides crucial context for strategic planning and market entry decisions.
This comparative analysis leverages Sila Insights’ comprehensive Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) data, which combines multiple sentiment indicators into a consolidated monthly score. By examining YoY changes between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, we can identify meaningful trends and anticipate potential shifts in consumer behaviour across these influential markets.
Key Findings: Saudi Arabia
Overall Sentiment Trajectory
Saudi Arabia’s consolidated CSI demonstrated strong YoY improvement in early 2025, with particularly notable gains in February 2025, where the index reached 64.54 (compared to 59.94 in February 2024). This represents a 7.7% increase, indicating substantially improved consumer confidence. While March 2025 showed a slight decline from the February peak, it remained below the March 2024 level, suggesting some recalibration of consumer expectations.
Component Analysis
Business Sentiment: The Business Index in KSA showed remarkable improvement in January and February 2025 compared to 2024 values, with scores of 65.65 and 68.08 respectively, representing YoY increases of 5.4% and 6.5%. However, March 2025 saw a significant decline to 53.80, substantially below the March 2024 value of 67.38. This suggests a reassessment of business conditions in the latter part of Q1 2025.
Economic Sentiment: Economic confidence in KSA demonstrated consistent growth throughout Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The Economy Index increased from 61.14 in January to 64.08 in March 2025, remaining consistently above 2024 levels. This indicates growing consumer confidence in the Kingdom’s economic direction and policy initiatives.
Employment Sentiment: The most dramatic improvement came in the Employment Index, which reached 66.32 in March 2025, a remarkable 10.6% increase from March 2024 (59.95). This suggests significantly enhanced optimism about job prospects and employment stability, likely reflecting the success of Saudization policies and economic diversification efforts.
Sentiment Distribution
Raw sentiment data reveals a notable shift in March 2025, with positive sentiment expressions reaching 668 (compared to 509 in March 2024), a 31.2% increase. This surge in positive expressions corroborates the narrative of improved consumer outlook in Saudi Arabia, particularly toward the end of Q1 2025.
Key Findings: United Arab Emirates
Overall Sentiment Trajectory
The UAE maintained strong consumer sentiment throughout Q1 2025, with the consolidated CSI peaking at 71.64 in February 2025, a 5.8% increase from February 2024 (67.72). While January 2025 showed a slight YoY decline from January 2024, the overall trajectory remained positive, reflecting the UAE’s continued position as a regional leader in consumer confidence.
Component Analysis
Business Sentiment: The Business Index in the UAE showed mixed performance in Q1 2025. While January and February 2025 values were slightly below their 2024 counterparts, March 2025 saw impressive growth to 76.58, representing a 1.8% increase from March 2024 (75.26). This suggests renewed business optimism as Q1 2025 progressed.
Economic Sentiment: Economic sentiment in the UAE displayed notable volatility in Q1 2025. February 2025 saw a substantial improvement to 71.15 (compared to 67.75 in February 2024), but January and March 2025 values fell below their 2024 benchmarks. This variability may reflect shifting consumer reactions to economic policy announcements and global market conditions.
Employment Sentiment: The Employment Index exhibited the most dramatic fluctuation in the UAE, with February 2025 reaching an impressive 74.02, a 16.1% increase from February 2024 (63.76). However, this was followed by a sharp decline to 64.55 in March 2025, suggesting consumers may be recalibrating their employment expectations amid economic adjustments.
Sentiment Distribution
Raw sentiment data from the UAE shows a remarkable spike in positive expressions in February 2025 (532 versus 412 in February 2024), representing a 29.1% increase. Interestingly, March 2025 saw a decline in positive sentiment expressions compared to March 2024, indicating potential changing consumer perspectives toward the end of Q1.
Comparative Analysis: KSA vs. UAE
Sentiment Convergence
A notable finding from the comparative analysis is the gradual convergence in consumer sentiment between KSA and UAE. While the UAE has historically maintained higher consumer confidence levels, Saudi Arabia demonstrated more consistent YoY growth in Q1 2025, narrowing the gap between the two markets.
This trend is particularly evident in February 2025, when the difference between UAE and KSA consolidated CSI scores was 7.1 points (71.64 vs. 64.54), compared to a wider gap of 7.78 points in February 2024 (67.72 vs. 59.94). This suggests Saudi Arabia is making steady progress in enhancing consumer confidence as its economic transformation continues.
Contrasting Sector Strengths
The two markets display distinct patterns in their component indices:
- KSA: Demonstrated strongest YoY improvement in the Employment Index, reflecting successful job creation initiatives and workforce development programs aligned with Vision 2030 objectives.
- UAE: Showed particular strength in Business sentiment, maintaining high scores throughout both periods and reaching a peak of 76.58 in March 2025, the highest component score observed in either market across both quarters.
Volatility Patterns
The UAE market showed greater volatility in sentiment metrics during Q1 2025, particularly in the Employment Index, which fluctuated substantially between January and March. By contrast, Saudi Arabia displayed more consistent growth patterns across January and February 2025, with the exception of the Business Index decline in March.
Market Opportunities
Saudi Arabia
- Employment Services Growth: The substantial improvement in employment sentiment suggests opportunities for recruitment platforms, professional development services, and HR technology providers to meet growing demand.
- Economic Confidence Leverage: Consistently improving economic sentiment indicates favorable conditions for premium product launches and luxury retail expansion, as consumers demonstrate increased financial optimism.
- March Business Sentiment Recovery: The sharp decline in business sentiment in March 2025 represents an opportunity for business consulting services, operational efficiency solutions, and financial management tools to address emerging corporate concerns.
United Arab Emirates
- Business Services Expansion: The sustained high business sentiment in the UAE, particularly in March 2025, suggests continued receptiveness to business service offerings, corporate events, and B2B solutions.
- Employment Volatility Response: The fluctuation in employment sentiment presents opportunities for temporary staffing agencies, career transition services, and skills development platforms to address emerging workforce needs.
- Economic Confidence Stabilisation: The variability in economic sentiment indicates potential for financial advisory services, investment education platforms, and economic information services to help consumers navigate changing market conditions.
Conclusion
The comparison of consumer sentiment in Saudi Arabia and the UAE between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 reveals a dynamic picture of evolving consumer confidence in two of the GCC’s most significant economies. While the UAE maintains its position as the regional leader in consumer optimism, Saudi Arabia demonstrates impressive momentum in sentiment growth, particularly in employment confidence.
These findings highlight the tangible impact of economic diversification strategies and policy initiatives in both markets, with each country displaying distinct patterns of consumer response. For businesses operating in or entering these markets, understanding these sentiment trajectories provides crucial context for strategic planning and market positioning.
This research was conducted using Sila Insights’ proprietary Consumer Sentiment Index methodology and social understanding solutions. For more information on how Sila’s advanced analytics can support your market research needs, please contact our team.
